Kentucky Derby 2021 Horses to Watch, Odds and Analysis (2024)

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What horses have the best odds in the Kentucky Derby? ›

2024 Kentucky Derby horses and odds

Post 1: Dornoch Odds: 20-1 (+2000) Post 2: Sierra Leone Odds: 3-1 (+300) Post 3: Mystik Dan Odds: 20-1 (+2000) Post 4: Catching Freedom Odds: 8-1 (+800)

With odds of 91–1, winning horse Donerail is the longest odds winner in Kentucky Derby history.

Understanding horse racing odds and payouts

If the odds for a horse are 7-2, it indicates that for every $2 you bet, your potential return would be $7. So when you bet $2 and win, your total winnings are $9 ($7, plus your $2 stake you get back).

Before the race, Fierceness was the favored horse to win, at 5-2 odds. Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom were also considered strong contenders. However, it was the underdog, Mystik Dan, who defied the 18-1 odds and emerged as the victor with a tome of 2:03.34, a result that surely left many spectators surprised.

The Kentucky Derby is a 1.25-mile race. It's key to recognize that the Derby is the longest race that most, if not all of the contenders have ever been in. Look for horses that prefer distance races to sprints. Consider how the field has adapted to previous changes in distance, and take close note of their bloodlines.

The 150th Kentucky Derby on Saturday featured a photo finish and record betting interest. According to Churchill Downs, $210.7 million was wagered on Mystik Dan's win of the Kentucky Derby, besting by $20 million the previous betting record set last year.

Donerail (1913), 91-1

Donerail -- owned, bred and trained by Thomas P. Hayes -- won the 39th Run for the Roses by a half-length after rallying from the fifth spot at the top of the stretch. That upset paid $184.90 for a $2 wager.

Trailing behind Secretariat is Monarchos with a time of 1:59.97. Secretariat and Monarchos are the only two horses to record times of under two minutes at the Kentucky Derby. Coming in third with a time just three-hundredths of a second behind Monarchos is Norther Dancer in a time of two minutes flat.

The safest bet you can make is a SHOW bet on the favorite. While it's the most likely to hit, it delivers a small return. If you want to make more money, you need to bet on the more exotic wagers. They include the EXACTA (top two horses in order), the TRIFECTA (top three in order) or the SUPERFECTA (top four in order).

What does 7 to 2 odds mean in horse racing? ›

When horse racing odds are shown in the form of 7-2, 5-1, etc, it expresses the amount of profit to the amount invested. So odds of 7-2 mean that for every $2 invested, the punter gets $7 profit in return. This means when you bet $2, the total return if the bet is successful is $9.

What 20-to-1 means: When you see 20-to-1 odds, you're looking at a long shot that is unlikely to win. The implied win probability for a team that's 20-to-1 is 4.76%. However, it will pay $20 in profits for every $1 wagered if it wins.

#17 Fierceness is the betting favorite for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, with current odds of 7-2. Fierceness' odds have been as low as 2-1 this week, with 7-2 the longest the horse has been so far in the run-up to the Derby. #2 Sierra Leone is next, currently at 5-1, followed by #11 Forever Young at 6-1.

The odds of 9-2 or 8-5 are typical examples. In the case of 9-2 odds, this means that, for every $2 bet, you would win about $9 and get $11 back (maybe some change, too). To figure out your approximate payoff when the odds are 9-2, 7-2, 5-2,3-2 or 1- 2, simply add the two numbers and you'll know your $2 payoff.

Infield general admission: $130 ($135 with fees). Infield final turn general admission: $320 ($387 with fees).

Information used is from the pari-mutuel wager era (since 1908). The Kentucky Derby has been contested 116 times since 1908, and the post-time favorite has won 40 times.

Florida Derby winner Fierceness is the favorite, with Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone next on the morning line, and Catching Freedom, Forever Young and Just a Touch among the other top contenders for the roses.

What 20-to-1 means: When you see 20-to-1 odds, you're looking at a long shot that is unlikely to win. The implied win probability for a team that's 20-to-1 is 4.76%. However, it will pay $20 in profits for every $1 wagered if it wins.