In order for XRP to reach $500, its price would have to increase by more than 1,000 times. Most analysts believe that this is too high of a bar for XRP to clear. However, that opinion is not unanimous. Also, even if XRP never reaches the $500 mark, the coin still has a lot of upside potential, as it is currently trading at just 49 cents, 87% removed from its ATH.
XRP is one of the most well-established digital assets in the cryptocurrency space. It has been around since 2013 and has spent most of its time in the group of the 10 largest market-cap cryptos. The currency has reached its all-time high of $3.92 in early 2018. However, the lack of regulatory clarity and XRP’s delisting on several major exchanges led to a significant price retracement in the years since.
In this article, we are going to examine various factors that could contribute to XRP’s growth, explore what analysts are predicting, and consult our algorithmic price prediction to see whether XRP could reach $500.
Key takeaways:
- For XRP to hit $500, it would require an over 1,000-fold increase from its current price. Analysts widely consider this an unattainable milestone due to the massive market cap increase it demands, estimated at over $26 trillion.
- Despite the improbability of hitting $500, XRP holds substantial growth potential.XRP once held a significant market share, comprising 20% of the crypto market cap in early 2018. While replicating this level remains uncertain, it showcases the coin's capability for market dominance.
- XRP's circulating supply is relatively decentralized compared to other cryptocurrencies. Technical analysts project varying bullish scenarios, yet algorithmic predictions suggest a more conservative increase, estimating a rise to $1.53 within the next year.
- The $500 mark for XRP remains almost unattainable, given the astronomical market cap it necessitates. However, factors like Ripple's IPO success and a decisive legal victory against the SECcould significantly impact its trajectory in the long term.
Can XRP reach $500?
XRP reaching $500 seems nearly impossible. The XRP price would have to increase by more than +100,000% from its current price of $0.49, which would increase the currency’s market cap to over $26 trillion. That’s over 8 times higher than the combined market value of all cryptocurrencies during the peak of the crypto bull run in 2021.
However, that doesn’t mean that XRP doesn’t have a lot of room for growth. In the following sections, we are going to examine various factors that could contribute to a bullish future.
XRP accounted for a much higher share of the market cap in the past
During the crypto bull run in 2018, XRP’s price reached as high as $3.92. At the time, the digital currency’s market cap stood at $139.4 billion, or roughly 20% of the entire crypto market. Fast forward to today, XRP’s market cap is “just” $16.5 billion, accounting for 1.2% of the total crypto market capitalization.
In early 2018, XRP had a market cap of $139 billion, accounting for 20% of the entire crypto market cap (market snapshot on Jan 4, 2018).
While it’s impossible to say whether XRP could grow enough to account for a fifth of the market in the future, the coin has clearly demonstrated its potential to do so. If the crypto industry continues to grow and the cryptocurrency captures its former market share, XRP could easily retest and potentially even surpass its former ATH– however, that's unlikely to happen during the upcoming halving cycle.
Ripple’s recent legal victory against the SEC showcased XRP’s growth potential
On July 13, 2023, the judge presiding in the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) vs. Ripple case ruled that XRP sold to programmatic investors doesn’t fall within the scope of US securities laws and is thus a commodity. Immediately after the ruling was made public, the price of XRP shot up by over +25% and proceeded to nearly double in value in the span of just 5 hours.
The sudden price surge following the judge’s ruling in favor of Ripple showcased that investors are very bullish about XRP’s future as long as the regulatory clarity increases.
Ripple partnerships and XRP adoption
Out of the companies in the crypto space, Ripple commands one of the most impressive lists of partnerships. The list of Ripple partners includes the likes of Mastercard, Colombia’s and Qatar's central banks, Bank of America, Siam Commercial Bank, PNC Bank, and dozens more.
Clearer regulations could ease investor concerns and lead to increased adoption. More institutional investors entering the market could provide the necessary liquidity and drive up the price, while wider usage of XRP in international transactions could fuel its demand.
It is worth noting that XRP, despite strong ties with the financial industry and institutional investors, has a more decentralized circulating supply than some other crypto staples. The percentage of XRP circulating supply held by the top 10 addresses – also known as the “XRP rich list” – amounts to 20.5%. For comparison, the top 10 addresses control 46.9% of Dogecoin and 27.6% of Ethereum.
Dollar-backed stablecoin could expand Ripple's core business
In April 2024, Ripple announced that it would launch its own dollar-backed stablecoin, rivaling giants in the space, including Circle (with its USDC stablecoin) and Tether (the company behind USDT). Ripple has said that it will back its stablecoin with a combination of US dollar deposits, short-term US Treasurys, high-grade commercial paper,and money market instruments.
Since Ripple's core business revolves around facilitating low-cost cross-border transactions, a USD-pegged stablecoin makes perfect sense for the company. There's little known about how Ripple will end up integrating the stablecoin within its existing offering. However, there is speculation that stablecoin could be integrated with xRapid, their on-demand liquidity solution for cross-border settlements. In addition, the stablecoin could be used as an important off and on-ramp solution for cryptocurrency exchanges and perhaps even as a backbone of Ripple's potential DeFi ecosystem.
XRP price prediction: Here’s what analysts have to say
Technical analysis offers advantages and disadvantages – it excels at identifying price trends and entry/exit points but is subjective in interpretation, lacking consideration of fundamental factors. Its predictive accuracy is limited as it relies on historical data, making it important to complement it with other analyses for well-informed decisions.
That said, there are several technical analysts who predict a boost in XRP price is all but imminent. According to an analysis posted by a user going by the name of badblo0dbgon TradingView, XRP could enter the above $30 territory in 2024.
Image source: TradingView (@badblo0dbg)
“XRP is ready to fly. This time everything is on deck for a massive rally,” wrote the user. Another bullish prediction for XRP was posted by XRP-Jonny, whose analysis is much more optimistic. According to them, XRP will pull a massive rally in the coming months and eventually push to $589 by 2025.
Image source: TradingView (@XRP-Jonny)
While these kinds of analyses are useful to gain insight into potential price movements, it’s important to take them with a grain of salt as they don’t account for fundamental factors or any kind of external reasons beyond historical price-related factors.
Algorithmic XRP price prediction: $500 is out of the question in the near future
Our algorithmic price prediction for XRP is not as bullish as that of some technical analysts. The algorithm forecasts that XRP will gain +76% in the next year, reaching $0.88 by next April. That would be a nice gain, but it would be much lower than some analysts predict. It is worth noting that the price of XRP could reach as high as $1.662 within the time period, which would represent XRP’s multi-year high.
The bottom line: XRP reaching $500 is borderline impossible
If XRP were to reach $500, it would command a market cap of $26.6 trillion. Not only is that 8 times more than the combined value of all digital assets at their peak valuation, it would be three times more than the four largest public companies in the world – Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Saudi Aramco– combined. That seems a very unlikely possibility, to say the least.
However, if Ripple succeeds in its IPO plans and the company wins the lawsuit against the SEC, the sky is the limit for XRP, especially in the long run, spanning to 2040 and 2050.
